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realtime sim automated trading systems hypothetical live market paper trading tests

what does live market pre-production automated paper trading really look like?
Looking in the NinjaTrader Control center it will be a mixture of red and black, ideally over a long period several weeks and months.. but that doens’t mean you don’t have to backtest to see the larger picture…

If you are going to give yourself the best chance of trading success you will backtest and optimise over a significant data sample – to establish the worst drawdown – be prepared to need 3 times the amount – so if its 50 – you need 150. understand many other details and establish if you can trade it psychologically, win/loss ratio. risk reward – expectancy, profit to max drawdown etc

realtime sim automated trading systems hypothetical live market paper trading tests

realtime sim automated trading systems hypothetical live market paper trading tests

You will the discard it or accept it and perform out of sample tests to see how it behaves on a different data sample to avoid curve fitting. You should also consider testing on a wider set of instruments and timeseries.

Eventually if you are going down the right path you might get to the point where you can perform a realtime live test – and you can run the NinjaTrader strategies as shown in the picture on a set of charts and track the realtime paper trading results, risk free. No need to believe any hype – only believe what you see by your own efforts for the best chances in trading.

Avoid vendors who don’t show reality or conveniently leave it out
Never ever pay for anything based on a set of stats that are not a significant data samples say 5 years for a day trading system, 10 an EOD etc or more… you need to know you can afford to trade it – you need years of data.
Do not get fooled and conned by the allure and desire which will open your wallet and get you spending on something you dont really understand… do the work, learn and dont jump the gun as it will shoot you in the foot.!!!
Don’t go in circles jumping from one system to another – learn how to do it right…read a book or get coaching but try something other than assessing systems for a few days/weeks and saying ok this it! as you are a born loser if you do that!!!

Save your capital for learning and trading dont pay for software you dont understand or might not be good for you later on after months or weeks or a just a few bad days.

Process to not blow up and go in circles blaming systems and being a butterfly trader.
1. Procure data
2. backtest sept 2009 to sept 2015
3. out of sample test 2016 to 2017
4. pre production tests 3 months

>>>learn to use excel and collate and track!
This is a highly skilled business do not take short cuts you will pay…later.

Automated trading PDF
Some Suggested Reading
New Market Wizards
Way of the Turtle
Mechanical trading systems – Earik Beann
Mechanical Trading Systems – Pairing Trader Psychology with Technical Analysis – RICHARD L. WEISSMAN

Now you need to understand this also

Determining Expectancy in Your Trading

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Risk Disclosure Futures, CFDs & forex trading contains substantial risk & is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading & only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please read the full risk disclosure here.

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results & the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, & no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results & all which can adversely affect trading results.

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